Smoke Signal - Issue #1

A weekly dose of polymathematics.

Hey everyone,

Welcome to this first issue of Smoke Signal. Everyone and their dog has a newsletter these days - I know. Writing a weekly “letter” is my attempt at a deliberate practice and public commitment to deliver (hopefully) high “signal” across a diversity of topics. You, my friends - are spread far and wide - so I hope this format can help us keep in touch and perhaps even bring us closer.

The content you read here will be random by design. I’m not an expert on anything in particular but I try to learn new things every day and I enjoy sharing insights with my friends.

When something interests me I tend to do way more than scratch the surface. It’s surprising how much you can learn about a subject by spending just a couple of hours actively listening or reading. I don’t have data to back this up but if the average person spends 5 minutes reading headlines on a subject and you spend 5 hours triangulating on the same you might be 60x more informed than the mean. Intuitively this sounds right to me and it’s consistent with my lived experience.

Each week I will share a few things that I find compelling such as; books and articles I am reading; cool products; current events; economics; Bitcoin; startup ideas; and more.

If anything you read here inspires you in some way please let me know so I can try to add more of it over time. And of course please share this letter with others if you think they might like it.

Storm King on the Hudson, 1866

1. The End of the World is Just the Beginning

I’ve recently been ranting about Peter Zeihan’s latest book because it helped me to understand that Geopolitics = (the economics of) Demography + Geography. TLDR: if your population isn’t producing babies at a 2.1 replacement fertility rate your country is fu*ked and if your country is beholden to the shipping Gods but without agricultural self sovereignty you’re fu*ked. Everyone in Silicon Valley is pretending they are macro-experts at the moment but they seem to miss a lot of what Zeihan is saying … so read it for some edge.

Some highlights from the book:

• China in 2022 is the fastest-aging society in human history with an estimated replacement birth rate of 1.3 which may lead to China’s “complete demographic collapse” by 2050.

• The days of long-haul transport are largely over because America’s incentive to be a global guarantor of the seas has continually waned since the end of the Cold War. Instead we will encounter more hemispheric-based power projection and free-market freeloaders will no longer benefit from safe passage on global shipping routes.

• “Green math” is dirty. For example: a typical 100-kilowatt-hour Tesla lithium-ion battery is built in China on a coal-powered grid. Its manufacturing process releases 13,500 kg of carbon dioxide emissions, roughly equivalent to a conventional gas-powered car driving for 33,000 miles. The American electricity grid is powered by 40% natural gas and 19% coal and thereby the approximate “carbon break-even” point of the Tesla is at best 55,000 miles driven!

2. (Bare) footwear

Watch this video for a quick overview on the negative side effects of modern footwear (i.e. almost all the shoes you have worn since you were born). I am surprised to learn that you can reverse at least some of this damage by wearing the right shoes.

While I have known about barefoot shoes for a while and even bought a pair of New Balance Minimus trainers a decade ago, I never took the time to understand the science behind them. Back then I went too hard running with Rick around Regent’s Park rather than easing into barefoot running. Of course I injured myself (they are a calf-killer!) and then went off the shoes. More recently, due to some chronic back problems, episodic sciatica and generally increased consciousness about my mobility I’m going to give barefoot another try. Also it’s worth noting ten years ago most of the shoes were damn ugly so they didn’t appeal to my vanity. But today seems like there are many options in the sweet spot of functional utility and aesthetic pleasure.

Here is a comprehensive recap of brands to consider if you want to try a pair of these shoes without looking like a complete tool. I am leaning towards just bought a pair of Feelgrounds. I’ll keep you posted on my experience with them. If you wear barefoot shoes hit me up with any tips.

3. Podcast - The Science Of Peak Performance - Andrew Huberman | Modern Wisdom Podcast 496

Fascinating 2+ hour discussion about the mind-body connection.

4. Feedback please

There are only 10 of you reading this for now so please help me out with 30 seconds of feedback. Thanks again for reading!

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